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‘Soft landing?’ ‘Hard landing? We will be lucky to have ANY landing.

Posted by John Reed on

There is a big WSJ article today about whether the Fed can bring about a "soft landing" from high inflation.
They omit a possibility other than a "soft" or "hard landing"---permanent death of the USD. That never happened before. But we never had a debt-to-GDP ratio of 126% before either.
If we raise interest rates 10% now, that increase federal spending on us government interest to 10% x $30T which is $3T a year. US government tax revenues are about $4.5T a year so all federal spending other than defense, federal workers Social Security and maybe Medicare would end.
That is not a "hard landing." It is like the USD being shot out if the sky like the TWA flight over Lockerbie.
All this talk about "landings"is really at bottom a discussion about American and world trust in the USD. I have not trusted it since 2010. Current flight from US bonds by investors is evidence that I am not the only one.
This is serious s***; bit a repeat of 1980 when the US debt-to-GDP ratio was only 31%.

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