John T. Reed’s news blog

My 2020 book How to Spot Dishonest Arguments and keep your own thinking straight laments the absence of probability and statistics in high school curricula. I think all adults need to understand probability and statistics to a course 102 level to function in America. . https://johntreed.com/.../how-to-spot-dishonest-arguments... . In my book, although not a P&S course per se, tries to give some highlights in the hope that the readers will seek out the whole course. . One thing I did was explain expected value. I studied decision trees and decision theory on my own after college. Then I went to Harvard...

Stop the presses!.These sentences are on the front page of today's WSJ. ."Home equity has climbed nearly 80% since early 2020—up from $19.5 trillion—thanks to a turbocharged rise in house prices. That was about twice the rise in financial wealth including stocks and bonds as of the end of 2024, according to the Federal Reserve.".So the WSJ admits what little old Jack Reed [me] has been saying on his free Facebook page for years: a principal residence beats the hell out of stocks and bonds as an investment. And there are two dozen structural reasons for this. It's not just a...

Aha! . I have repeatedly criticized WSJ's Nicole Friedman for incessantly, illogical reasoned articles whose advice is "now is not the time to buy a home. . In my 56-year career of buying 121 residential units, there was NEVER a year when I was NOT told this is not the right year to buy. So Nicole is not the only victim of this analysis paralysis disease. . Today, WSJ has another article, this one by ROBYN Friedman. I do not know if Nicole and Robyn are related. . It is about "rent-to-own," one if the biggest real estate scams in...

One of the things I learned about researching hyperinflation is Gresham’s Law. That says that in inflation, people want to PAY with the inflating currency and GET PAID with a non-inflated one. The original form of Gresham’s Law related to paper currency versus coins and later coins containing precious metal versus base metal coins. Inflated money is the current incarnation of being forced to use currency that is worth less than other currency. . https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gresham%27s_law . We have legal tender laws in the US. . https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legal_tender . Those sort of capital controls for certain transactions. . https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_control . Capital controls...

The WSJ'S Jason Zweig has another column recommending TIPS today. I wrote a book on hyperinflation. Do I recommend TIPS (Taxpayer Inflation Protected Securities—federal government bonds). . Hell, no! . I bought a bunch when I wrote the 1st edition of my hyperinflation book. . https://johntreed.com/.../how-to-protect-your-life... . Then, when writing the second edition of that book, I read the fine print on them. . When I got done cursing, I sold them all forcing me to pay $50k of tax penalties. . 1. They adjust the maturity value of your bond for inflation annually. The interest rate never changes, just...