Biden’s shakiness notwithstanding, the West’s response to Putin’s Ukraine invasion may be about right.
Posted by John Reed on
There is some kind of Ukraine armored/infantry breakthrough there. They are also effectively hitting various ships and infrastructure in Crimea and maybe all over the Black Sea.
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Furthermore, Biden has apparently agreed to increase aid and finally give them ATACMS—artillery rockets with 200-mile range as opposed to the max HIMARS range of 50 miles. The decision to give them F-16 fighter jets has already been made and though they need to train pilots and set up ability to maintain and get parts for them, the day when that will be in place is nearing.
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The members of the Dictators Association (Xi, Putin, etc.)‚ have for decades been fond of testing in little ways here and there. The Berlin Blockade, The Berlin Crisis, The Cuban Missile Crisis, Hussein annexing Kuwait, North Korea invading South Korea, North Vietnam invading South Vietnam, Russia seizing Crimea, etc.
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Biden and NATO and other friendly Western and Far East and Oceania nations have stepped up in both little ways and big ways to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Sweden and Finland joined NATO. That was the last thing Putin wanted but he got it.
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All sorts of nations have helped Ukraine outside of NATO like EU and Switzerland have helped in all sorts of ways like accepting Ukrainian refugees, giving weapons, finding new sources of oil and gas to replace Russia, and so on.
.
Biden keeps doing big things—always after much Hamletesque hand wringing. To escalate, or not to escalate: that is the question.
.
But he eventually does them.
.
Like many, I say quit pussyfooting around and give Ukraine the assistance in all sorts of forms that may help and urge the rest of the non-members of the dictator’s club to do the same. Is it possible, doing what we have been doing is better?
.
It is sort of correct game theory—tit for tat with occasional pauses. Never putting Putin in a corner. Partly, if we are going to go to war with Putin, he must play the roles of Tojo, Yamamoto, and Hirohito and bomb Pearl Harbor, thereby uniting America and the world.
.
Biden has avoiding bombing any Russian Pearl Harbor. Believe it or not, many Russians believe Putin’s “logic” about Russia’s “right” to annex Ukraine. They seem to be a people who have an irrational opinion of themselves, how great they were in the past and what they are entitled to now from the rest of the world.
.
As one leader said, Russia is a gas station with nukes. They think they are a cultural, scientific, powerful world leader with the most land area, many natural resources, and some je ne sais quois that makes them the equivalent of the US or Western Europe or Mainland China.
.
Of course, that is preposterous. But that does not mean we are entitled to tell them that or rub their faces in their underachievement. Nor does it mean it is wise to do that.
.
The precise dial setting on how much to support Ukraine that leads to the optimal end of the war is beyond my ken and maybe beyond the ken of the most knowledgeable Eastern Europe watchers.
.
The invasion started 2/20/2014, and leaped ahead a second time in February 2022. It appears the high water mark was March 2022 when Russia occupied 27% of Ukraine. Now they are down to 18%.
.
Furthermore, Ukraine has been on the offensive and talking about more offensives. If Russia has any plans to take the offensive, they are neither talking about them nor doing anything that suggests them. Indeed, their military efforts have been all defensive: flooding territory, mines, tank traps and barriers, trenches.
.
To all appearances, they seem to be struggling in every pertinent activity like recruiting, selling oil for market prices, finding ammunition, population shrinkage, GDP shrinkage.
.
It is now an “uncle”-saying contest. Who is going to say “uncle” first?
.
Would we be better off if we increased support faster? I think so. But I am not sure.
.
In the 1930s, we were too slow to stand up to Hitler and Hirohito. 53 million people died. The US alone spent $4T in today’s dollars.
.
Can I give an example of when we went too far in the other direction standing up too much to an enemy? Yes. I just wrote about it here recently. We overreacted to 9/11. But that cost to us was about 7,000 KIA and $2.4T.
.
So it would appear wise to err in the direction of overreacting especially when the adversary has thousands of nukes.
.
I wish Biden would stop expressing fear of WW III. Just react in a way as to discourage the dictator’s club from using force to annex territory without any comment about what you are afraid of. It goes without saying.
.
The isolationist movement in the US is an echo of the one here in the 1930s, led by Spirit of St. Louis hero Charles Lindbergh.
.
Many GOP people are demanding to know how much are we going to give Ukraine total. When will it end?
.
Did George Washington have to answer those questions? Lincoln? Wilson? FDR? Did the US have other non-military needs in those times? Hell, yes. In the 1930s, we had the Great Depression. By, say, Laura Ingraham standards, we had no money for war in 1941.
.
The weather sometimes makes big messes, like hurricanes. So do earthquakes and arsonists and megalomaniac dictators. When it happens, you clean it up. Opting out is not an option.
.
Peace through strength works. Peace through appeasement or isolationism is not peace at all. It is mere postponement of the stitch-in-time-saves-nine variety.
.
Furthermore, Biden has apparently agreed to increase aid and finally give them ATACMS—artillery rockets with 200-mile range as opposed to the max HIMARS range of 50 miles. The decision to give them F-16 fighter jets has already been made and though they need to train pilots and set up ability to maintain and get parts for them, the day when that will be in place is nearing.
.
The members of the Dictators Association (Xi, Putin, etc.)‚ have for decades been fond of testing in little ways here and there. The Berlin Blockade, The Berlin Crisis, The Cuban Missile Crisis, Hussein annexing Kuwait, North Korea invading South Korea, North Vietnam invading South Vietnam, Russia seizing Crimea, etc.
.
Biden and NATO and other friendly Western and Far East and Oceania nations have stepped up in both little ways and big ways to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Sweden and Finland joined NATO. That was the last thing Putin wanted but he got it.
.
All sorts of nations have helped Ukraine outside of NATO like EU and Switzerland have helped in all sorts of ways like accepting Ukrainian refugees, giving weapons, finding new sources of oil and gas to replace Russia, and so on.
.
Biden keeps doing big things—always after much Hamletesque hand wringing. To escalate, or not to escalate: that is the question.
.
But he eventually does them.
.
Like many, I say quit pussyfooting around and give Ukraine the assistance in all sorts of forms that may help and urge the rest of the non-members of the dictator’s club to do the same. Is it possible, doing what we have been doing is better?
.
It is sort of correct game theory—tit for tat with occasional pauses. Never putting Putin in a corner. Partly, if we are going to go to war with Putin, he must play the roles of Tojo, Yamamoto, and Hirohito and bomb Pearl Harbor, thereby uniting America and the world.
.
Biden has avoiding bombing any Russian Pearl Harbor. Believe it or not, many Russians believe Putin’s “logic” about Russia’s “right” to annex Ukraine. They seem to be a people who have an irrational opinion of themselves, how great they were in the past and what they are entitled to now from the rest of the world.
.
As one leader said, Russia is a gas station with nukes. They think they are a cultural, scientific, powerful world leader with the most land area, many natural resources, and some je ne sais quois that makes them the equivalent of the US or Western Europe or Mainland China.
.
Of course, that is preposterous. But that does not mean we are entitled to tell them that or rub their faces in their underachievement. Nor does it mean it is wise to do that.
.
The precise dial setting on how much to support Ukraine that leads to the optimal end of the war is beyond my ken and maybe beyond the ken of the most knowledgeable Eastern Europe watchers.
.
The invasion started 2/20/2014, and leaped ahead a second time in February 2022. It appears the high water mark was March 2022 when Russia occupied 27% of Ukraine. Now they are down to 18%.
.
Furthermore, Ukraine has been on the offensive and talking about more offensives. If Russia has any plans to take the offensive, they are neither talking about them nor doing anything that suggests them. Indeed, their military efforts have been all defensive: flooding territory, mines, tank traps and barriers, trenches.
.
To all appearances, they seem to be struggling in every pertinent activity like recruiting, selling oil for market prices, finding ammunition, population shrinkage, GDP shrinkage.
.
It is now an “uncle”-saying contest. Who is going to say “uncle” first?
.
Would we be better off if we increased support faster? I think so. But I am not sure.
.
In the 1930s, we were too slow to stand up to Hitler and Hirohito. 53 million people died. The US alone spent $4T in today’s dollars.
.
Can I give an example of when we went too far in the other direction standing up too much to an enemy? Yes. I just wrote about it here recently. We overreacted to 9/11. But that cost to us was about 7,000 KIA and $2.4T.
.
So it would appear wise to err in the direction of overreacting especially when the adversary has thousands of nukes.
.
I wish Biden would stop expressing fear of WW III. Just react in a way as to discourage the dictator’s club from using force to annex territory without any comment about what you are afraid of. It goes without saying.
.
The isolationist movement in the US is an echo of the one here in the 1930s, led by Spirit of St. Louis hero Charles Lindbergh.
.
Many GOP people are demanding to know how much are we going to give Ukraine total. When will it end?
.
Did George Washington have to answer those questions? Lincoln? Wilson? FDR? Did the US have other non-military needs in those times? Hell, yes. In the 1930s, we had the Great Depression. By, say, Laura Ingraham standards, we had no money for war in 1941.
.
The weather sometimes makes big messes, like hurricanes. So do earthquakes and arsonists and megalomaniac dictators. When it happens, you clean it up. Opting out is not an option.
.
Peace through strength works. Peace through appeasement or isolationism is not peace at all. It is mere postponement of the stitch-in-time-saves-nine variety.
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1 comment
Well written. You make a good point: letting Putin conquer unhindered may be very expensive for us down the line. I also am of the opinion the general approach has been too weak, encouraging Putin (“we’re fine with a minor incursion into Ukraine”) and giving enough support to prolong the bloodshed but not enough to end it. A stitch in time saves nine.
p.s. “The Dictators Club” (or Association), I love the term :)