Index for How to Spot Dishonest Arguments
Index
Symbols
4th Amendment 34
9/11 61, 7
12-needle biopsy 45
13, Prop 33
18 USC §1001 59
20/20 hindsight 65
25th Amendment 72
25-unit apartment complex 81
30-year 70, 4
60 Minutes 34
376 U.S. 254 92
509 U.S. 579 (1994) 62
1973 84
1979 84
1984 12
1988 Presidential campaign 74
2000 Florida Presidential election 52
2000 presidential debate 15
2008 91
2016 campaign 89
2016 election 40
2016 presidential candidates 14
[Daubert v. Dow Pharmaceuticals 62
A
AA 81
AAA bonds 81
abandon 78
abort 39
abortion 39
abortions 52, 8
absentee ballots 89
absurd 10, 1
Abu Ghraib 84
Academia 51
academic pretensions 58
academics 80
Academics 33
accelerating 96
accident 39
accidental 92
accounting 39
accuracy rate 87
acreage 71
actively managed 81
actively-managed 81
active mutual fund managers 88
actual case history 26
actual result 49
actual value 63
actuarial benefits 69
actuarial tables 49
Actuarial tables 83
actuaries 68
actuary 68
act white 40
ad 75
Adams, Scott 15
adequate 95
adequate bridge 97
ad hominem 26
ad hominem attack 35
adjusted for inflation 93, 4
adjusted-for-inflation 81
advanced common sense 95
advanced logic 95
advantages 29
advertisements 75
Advertising 92
advertising money 75
Aesop 28
aesthetics 95
affinity fraud 12
affordable health car 20
Afghanistan 35, 7
African-Americans 39
After which therefore because of which 25
age 32, 5
age difference 55
Age inappropriate bias 82
aircraft 96, 7
air force 78
air intake 66
Alaska 84
Alchemy of Finance 65
all burn down 69
allies 78
alliteration 10
All lives matter 15
All the President’s Men 79
almost right 87
already answere 36
aluminum 97
Alvarez 92
always been done that way 27
always rise in price 82
Alzheimers 72
amassed 39
Amazon 31, 6, 0
Amazon Prime 97
ambient 68
ambiguous modes of speaking and writing 37
ambulance-chaser lawyers 60
American football 56
American military 77
Amgen 58
Amity Schlaes 10
amnesties 73
Amos Tversky 80
amplitude of the price move 88
Analogies 10
Analyze 58
anatomy 93
anchor 82
Anchoring bias 83
and concrete 95
anecdotal evidence 26
Anecdotal evidence 25
anecdotal results 35
angering 73
angry 73, 4
Annuities in kind 83
annuity 83
annuity companies 83
antibiotic 55
anti-deficiency judgment laws 70
anti-intellectualism 24
anti-real estate laws 85
anti-Semitic 73
anti-Trump media 76
anti-trust 14
anti-trust law 13
anti-vaccine 21
anti-vaxx 6, 4
antiwar 39
apartment buildings 84
Apollo 11 28
appeal 73
appeal to authority 35
appeal to fear 35
appeal to tradition 27
Apple 31, 6, 0, 0, 1
appraising 84
appreciation rate 53
AR 71
arbitrary rule 58
architecture 95
argue with results 21
argumentanm ad logicam 19
Argument from intimidation 14
argument to absurdity 10
argument to moderation 27
argument to the purse 32
argumentum ad absurdum 10
Argumentum ad antiquitatem 27
Argumentum ad crumenam 32
argumentum ad hominem 26
Argumentum ad miserecordiam 33
argumentum ad naturam 35
Argumentum ad nauseam 23
Argumentum ad numerum 18
Argumentum ad populum 18
argumentum ad temperantiam 27
argumentum ad verecundiam 35
argumentum in terrorem 35
Argumentum verbosium 33
Ariely, Daniel 80
Arizona 95
Army 56, 4, 3
Army tanks 96
Arnold, Benedict 16
Article I 92
Article II 72
Arugmentum ad novitatem 32
Asia 20
Asian-American neighborhood 48
Asimov, Isaac 24
asked and answered 36
aspersions 40
aspirin 55
assassination 34
assault 14
Associated Press 52
association 24
assumed to be incorrect until proven 54
assumes facts not in evidence 33
assume the worst case 88
assuming 66
Assuming facts not in evidence 29
Assumption 96
assumptions 53
Assumptions 66
astronauts 97
athletic 17
Atkisson, Sharyl 22
atmospheric scientist 61
Atomic and nuclear physics 95
at risk 82
attacks 80
Attkisson, Sheryl 79
Attorney General 79
attracting attention 59
atypical 26
auction 84
auction bidders 84
Auctioneers 36
auction fever 84
auditor 51
Australia 56
Australian 55
authenticate 19
autism 66
Automotive engineering 95
automotive engineers 97
autopsies 46
autopsy 46, 5, 89
average 43, 4
average past weather conditions 88
average value payoff 48
averse to losses 82
Avoidance 70
avoiding the risk 68
avoiding transactions 81
Avoid loss 90
avoid the risk 71
awkward 16
AZ 70
B
background 7,
background checks 24
back-pack trip 88
bacteria 62
bacterium-caused ulcer 55
badgering 19
Badgering 23
bad lending 86
bad luck 48, 5, 3
bafflegab 33
Bafflegab 33
Baier, Brett 76
Bain Capital 18
balloon payment 70
ban ad hominem attacks 26
band-wagon effect 44
bank account 41
bank examiner 81
bank failure 81
bankrupt 70, 1
bankruptcy 43, 1
bankruptcy exemption 71
bankruptcy-exemption planning 71
Bankruptcy exemptions 71
Bannon, Steve 41
Barnes and Noble 31
Barr 12
BART commuter trains 34
baseball 33, 4, 0
basic engineering 95
basic nature of stock 82
basketball 44
Battle of Gettysburg 64
Bayes Theorem 44, 45, 6, 7
bearish 88
Beck, Glenn 22
beer 97
begging the question 29
behavior 47
behavioral economics 80, 2
behavioral economics biases 3, 1
behavioral economist 80
behavioral finance 80
behavioral finance bias 65
Belief In The Law of Small Numbers 25
bell curv 86
bell curve 86
bell-shaped curve 44
bench warmer 50
benefit of any doubt 12
Benford, Frank 51
Benford’s curve 51
Benford’s Curve 51
benfords-law 51
Benford’s Law 51
Bennett, Bo 3
Benson, Guy 22
Bernstein, Carl 79
best-liar contest 72, 9
Best of Enemies 13
best practice 28
best practices 60, 8
Best Practices for the Intelligent Real Estate Investor 68
Better Explained 46
better safe than sorry 82
Better safe than sorry 64
beyond a reasonable doubt 16
bias 7, , 8, 0, 2, 3
biased 78
Biased assimilation 84
Biased sample 42
bicycles 61
Biden 15
Biden, Hunter 74
Biden, Joe 73
bifurcation 29
big 66
big corporations 61
big government intervention 61
Big Lie 16
big mo 43
Bill Clinton 74
Bill Gates 69
biopsies 46
biopsy 46
bird watching 93
birth certificate 19
birth-control pill 52, 58
birth order 54
bitch 39
Bitcoin 31, 0
bivariate 25
bizarre 16
black-and-white thinking 29
Blackberry 90
Black Lives Matter 14
black ops 39
blacks 54, 3
blame 83
Blame everything bad on my opponent 72
blaming 78
blank check 72
Blondlot, Prosper-Rene 59
blow the whistle 34
blueprints 95
board-certified specialists 63
board meeting 14
Bob Cratchit 32
body 56
body language 3
body mass index 27
body shop 69
Boeing 31
bogeyman 11
bombers 43
bonds 81, 2
book authors 79
book deal 34
bookies 87
books 87
borrow 82
borrowing 70
Boston 48
Boston Globe 48
Boston Marathon bomber 11
both sides 21, 26, 9
both” sides 78
Both sides 84
both” sides of the story 78
Both sides of the story 21
Both’ sides of the story 78
box cars 66
boycotts 76
Boy Scouts 40
brainwashing 23
brakes 96
brandish 39
bravado 83
bravery medals 92
break even 90
break-throughs 58, 9
breakthroughs 59, 0
breast cancer 46
Breitbart 23, 79
Brexit 87
bribery 72
bridge 95
Brinkley 76
British 32
British Intelligence 18
British spy 77
broken part 97
broker risk 70
Brother Love’s Traveling Salvation Show 36
Browne 52
Bruce, Tammy 22
Buchanan 52
Buckley, William F. 13
budget 27
building 95
built bridges 95
Bullet hole 43
bull market 88
bully 39, 3
bureaucracy 33
bureaucrat 35
Bureau of Vital Statistics 19
burn down 68
Bush 22, 2, 7
Bush, George H.W. 43, 7
Bush, President George H. W. 6
business management 95
business opportunity 43
butterfly 60
butterfly effect 60
Butterfly Effect 18
buying high 82
buying votes 39
Buying when prices are rising 82
C
CA 53, 0
cable channels 75
cadence 10
Cadet Prayer 40
cads 6
CAFE standards 97
Calculus 95
Caldeira, Ken 61
Caldeira, Kenneth 61
calm times 82
Cal Tech 80
Camaro 82
Cambodia 24
Camden 95
cancer 45, 2
cancers 62, 63
can’t argue with results 64
CA pension bankruptcy exemption 71
capital gains tax 47
capital gains taxes 42
Capitol 79
car 68
carbon deposits 66
carbon dioxide 24, 7
carbon-dioxide 61
career 58
career day 43
car engine 95
car insurance 69
Carlson, Tucker 15, 93
Carnegie Institution for Science 62
carnivorous 40
cars 61, 7, 7
case history 66
cash annuities 83
cash flow 53
Cash WinFall 48
casino 47
casinos 47, 9, 7
casualties 56
casualty 69
casualty damage 69
casualty loss 69
Catch-22 8
catechism 21
Catholicism 31
Caucasian 41
causation 24, 5, 4, 9
cause 34, 3, 5, 6, 7
cause and effect 24, 3
cave-man days 80
cell phone 24
censor 21
Centers for Disease Control 63
cerebral palsy 62
Certificate in Marriage 17
Certified Commercial Investment Members of the Realtors 53
cervix 52
chain is only as strong as its weakest link 53
change 39, 2
change their mind 89
changing the rules during the study 59
changing the subject 30, 31
Changing the subject 7
chaos 10
chaos theory 60
Chaos theory 87
Chappaquidick 28
character witness 13
charities 40
charity 39
Charlottesville 39
charts 93
Chauvinists 39
cheap 95
cheat 29
Chemistry 95
Cheney 22
Cherry Picking 13
Chicken Little 72
Chief Technology Officer 61
Child Counseling 17
childlike voice 37
children 82
chimpanzees 88
China 55, 6, 4
Chinese government statistics 55
Choakumchild 16
choice 12, 9
Christie, Chris 24
Christmas Carol 32
Christmas lights 97
Christopher Steele 18
Church of Nice 31
cigarette smoking 76
circular 18
circular citing of peer-group approval 18
citations 19, 3
city blocks 93
civil engineering 95, 6
Civil War 65
Clause 1 92
clean-burning fuel 61
cleanliness of laboratories 17
clear and present danger 92
cliché 10
Click bait 79
climate 40, 7, 8
Climate 87
climate change 17, 5
Climate change 60
climate change denier 14
climate model 60
climate-model error 60
climate range 88
climate science 60
Climate science 60
clinician 63
clot 52
clouds 61
cloud services 90
clout 69
clumsy 16
coal fired 66
co-conspirator 19
co-conspirators 34
code 37, 4
code of ethics 2
codes of ethics 26
cognitive dissonance 29
Cohen, Peter 95
coincidence 25, 4, 4, 59
coin flip 87
coin-flipping tournament 44
coin tossers 87
Coke 76
collecting data 58
college 82
college campuses 22
college graduates 89, 5
collision 39, 40
colluded 13
collusion 14, 6, 0, 6
Collusion 13
color of law 39
Columbia 20, 5
combat 83
Comey 15
Comey, James 16
command 83
Committee on the Safety of Medicines 52
common law 40
common sense 53
communist 56
Communist 20, 3
Communist Chinese 80
commutations 73
compassion 39
complex 18
compromise 27
computer 95
computer engineering 95
computer game 97
computerized 97
computer model 17, 0, 0, 7
computer models 60, 7
Computer programing 95
computer science 95
computer writing software 41
concerns 15
Concierge service 69
conclusions 28, 8, 2, 3
Conclusions 14
conclusory 16, 8, 27
conclusory statement 15
Conclusory statement 28
Concorde 32
condemned 40
condescending 31, 0, 1
confidence 16, 7
confirmation bias 25, 4
Confirmation bias 58, 9
confiscation of guns 24
conflict of interest 62
conflict-of-interest 8
conflicts 8
conformity 39
Congress 92
con men 6
Con men 36
connections 15
consensus 17, 2
Consensus 60
consensus of the pertinent scientific community 63
conservative 22, 9
conspiracies against the laity 26, 5
conspiracy 21, 7
conspiracy of silence 27
Conspiracy theory 34
Constitution 21, 7, 2
Constitutional crisis 16
construction cost 97
consultants 65
consume 82
Consumer Price Index 93
consumers 8
contacts 15
contempt 20
content 76
contingent 87
continuation of the pregnancy 52
contract 40
contractual cash flows 53
contrails 61
controversial 40
conventional 70
conventional wisdom 68
Conventional wisdom 56
Converting past tense to present 30
cooperation 40
corporate advertisers 76
Corporate Average Fuel Economy 97
corporation 12
correlated 54
correlation 24, 5, 9
Correlation 34
Correlation does not mean causality 57
corrupted by political necessity 67
Corvette 82
cost 64, 7
cost-effective 71
counter-arguments 19
counter-evidence 19
counterparty 70
court decisions 75, 7
court room 6, 18, 2, 3
courtroom 62
cover-up 34
covid 19 37
Cox 15
crash 40
crashworthy 97
creative 39
creative accounting 39
creative finance 39
credibility 36
credit 78, 9
credit to me 72
crime 55
Crimes Against Logic 22
criminal court 54
criminology 3
crisis 39, 2, 8
criticism 27, 7
criticized 40
Cronkhite 76
crop 70
crossing the street 68
crosswalk 68
Cruz, Ted 29
crypto currencies 31, 3
crystal ball 67, 86
C-section 62, 3
cults 6
cum hoc ergo propter hoc 25
cumulative 37
currency 83
customers 76
cut 39
cut your losses 21
cylinders 97
cynicism 34
D
daily reports 56
Dalbar study 81
Dallas 81
damaged 69
dark 40
dark clothing 68
darts 88
Darwin 80
data 58, 4
date 88
day report 56
day-to-day management 68
DC 71, 79
D-Day invasions 74
dead 67
deadlined 56
death certificate 56
death penalty 84
debate is over 21, 2
debate team 2
Debt risk 70
decades to “fix 61
decamillionaire 82
decelerating 96
decision diary 65
decision nodes 65
decision tree 65
Decision tree 65
decision trees 82
Decision trees 82
declared legally dead 56
deeds 63
deep pockets 69
default 53, 0
defaults rate 86
defeasible 35
defective attitude 56
defendant 63
defense 39, 0, 4
defense lawyer 54
defensive esotericism 38
deficit spending 67
Define a question 58
definite 69
deflection 7
delaying tactic 34
deliberate obscurity 37
demagoguing 24
demented 72, 3
Democrat 22, 39
Democrat party 34
Democrats 55
Democrats socialists 32
denier 40
Denniston system 49
denying a conjunct 29
Department of Global Ecology 62
deplorable effects 86
deposit insurance 49
deposition 20, 3
Depository Institutions Deregulation and Monetary Control Act 84
depressions 49
Derision 21
Dershowitz, Alan 24
design 95
detectable 52
devotion 65
Diamond, Neil 36
Dickens, Charles 16, 61
Dickensian 32
dictator 73
Dictatorships 56
dictionary 23
DIDMCA 84
die 83
died in vain 64, 5
diesel 84
difficult 97
Dilbert 15, 3
disadvantaged 39
disadvantages 29
disagree 28
disagreement 40
disappeared 56
disappearing baseline 93
disappointing 40
disarmament 39
disaster 73
Disaster avoidance 68
discarded stocks 42
discount rate 53
discrimination 54, 5
disease 63
disguise 56
disloyal 15
disloyalty 38
dismal science 86
dismissal 18
disparate impact 54
Disparate impact 53
disposition effect 82
disprove 59
dissenting conclusions 63
dissenting individual self-proclaimed expert 63
dissident intellectuals 37
distinctive 66
Distinguished Service Cross 7
distractions 74
Distressed Real Estate Times 81
diversification 80, 1
diversified 81
dividend 90
dividing 40
divorce 43
divorced 71
DNA 54
doctor 62
doctors 55
Doctors 63
doctors in London 83
dog 45
dog poop 93
dog whistle 40
doing something 10
domino argument 24
dominoes 60
Donald Trump 18
don’t get it 21
don’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good 62
Don’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good 64
do SOMETHING 9
dossier 39, 0, 7
Dossier 18
double-or-nothing 50
Douglas Aircraft Company 65
Dow 88
Dow-Jones 42
drafting tables 95
drawings 93
draws comparisons to 15
drill sergeants 36
droughts 87
drowning man grasping at straws 9
drug addict 71
drug companies 73
drunken walking 68
dubious loans 55
Dukakis, Mike 74
Duke, Annie 64
dumping 40
duplex 82
durability 97
durable 97
Duress 11
during construction 96
DVDs 75
dynamic loads 96
dysphemism 37
dysphemisms 39, 1
Dysphemisms 39
E
early onset Alzheimer’s 73
earnings 90
earthquake insurance 49
earthquakes 87, 6
Eastern Hemisphere 39
Eastwood, Clint 83
ebooks 31
Ebooks 31
economic expansion 55
economic forecasters 87
economics 33
Economics 80
economists 86, 8
Economists 86
education 54, 5
Edwards, John 62
Effort 35
E for effort 35
eggs 58, 9
Einstein 20
either–or fallacy 29
ejection criteria 81
Ejection criteria 84
elbow poke 37
elected official 39
election 89
election day 89
election month 89
election pollsters 86
elections 87
electoral vote 53
electoral votes 72
electorate 89
electrical engineering 95
Electrical science 95
electricity 61
electric motor 59
elephant 98
elitist 73
Ellenberg, Jordan 11, 2, 4, 8, 2, 4
emergency articles 85
emissions 61
emotional 22
emotions 32
Empire State Building 97
employ 40
employee 40
employers 54, 5, 3
employment 54
empty high rise apartments 55
empty high rises 56
encryption 12
end justifies dishonest means 11
End of Discussion 22
endowment bias 80
enemies 78
energy 55
energy efficiency 61
engineer 62, 95
engineering 3, 5, 6, 7
Engineering 17
engineering disasters 75
engineering discipline 95
Engineering mechanics 95
engineering mistake 97
enough 83
Enron 21
entire net worth 69
entitlements 55
environment 61
environmentalists 62
envy 12
equality 39
equity 70, 1, 1, 3, 4, 4
Equity premium effect 82
equivocation 11
err on the side of rain or snow 88
error rate 46, 2, 3
esoterically 37
esoteric writing 37
essential elements 40
estate 71
estate tax 14
ethical canon 40
ethics 75
ethnic group 12
EU 87
euphemism 73
euphemisms 41
Euphemisms 39
European Union 40
event nodes 65
evolution 80
evolving 80
exaggerated 20
exaggeration in claims 56
exaggerations 92
Excel Spreadsheet’s LEFT and COUNTIF functions 51
exceptions to the hearsay rule 18, 9
excess 39
excessive asking price 53
excessive bleeding 52
excessively precise 53
Excess precision 52
exchange 81
exchange risk 68, 0
Excited utterances 19
excitement 48
exciting 18
excluded 49
exclude function 41
exculpatory 12
excuses 77, 7
executed 98
execution 38
expectation of privacy 12
expected value 21, 25, 8, 9, 3, 4, 2
expected value) 65
expensive 97
experiment 58
expert 17, 3, 5, 4, 2, 3, 9
expert community 63
expertise 69
Expertise 84
experts 62, 8, 7, 88
expert witness 8
expert witnesses 63
exploit 40
exports 56
extinct 39
extreme 40
extremist 40, 3
eye color 54
F
Fabian socialist 39
Facebook’s 47
Facebook wall 6
fact checkers 3
fact finding 79
factory 66
facts 78, 9
facts-and-logic-free zone 21
fact witness 8
fads 44, 87
failed seductions 14
failing to forecast future prices 90
failures 83
failure to perform a C-section 62
fairness 76
fair use 13
fake news 2, 0
fallacy of exhaustive hypotheses 29
fallacy of false choice 29
fallacy of the excluded middle 29
fallacy of the false alternative 29
Fallacy of (the) Undistributed Middle 3
False analogy 30
false binary 29
False choice 29
false claim 92
False Claims Act 34, 2
false compromise 27
false dichotomy 29
false dilemma 29
false document 29
false negative 45
false positive 46
False positive 45
false test result 46
fame 11
Fame 34
family 71
Family 17
fantasies 11
fares 48
farmer 70
farmers 70
fascist 73
Fast-talking salesman 36
Faulty Analogy 10
FBI 18, 0, 7
FDIC 81
fear 14
fears 11
federal agencies 92
Federal Communication Commission 75
federal government employee 55
federal income tax 14
Federal Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) Court 18
federal intermediate credit bank 92
Federal land bank 92
Federal Reserve 81, 0
Federal Rule of Evidence 403 32
Federal Rules of Evidence 2, 8, 6, 9, 2
Federal Trade Commission 8
feel richer 83
females 54
fewer children 80
fewer humans 61
Few Good Men 86, 8
Feynman, Richard 3
FHA 70, 3, 2
fidelity risk 68
field sanitation 80
fig leaf 37
filter 66
financial calculator 53
financially measurable 69
financial success 40
fire 61, 9
fire people 13
fires 96
First Amendment 28, 2
First-born 54
first-born children 54
first house 82
FISA 77
FISA Court 18
fiscal policy 39
five-day forecast 88
five W’s 66
fixed interest rate 94
fixed-interest-rate 70
fixed-rate mortgage 94
FL 71
flashing lights 97
Flat-bed trucks 96
flattening the curve 37
fleet of manufactured vehicles 97
flip a coin 44, 6
flipping a coin 54
flood insurance 49
Florida 52
Fluid mechanics 95
followed my advice 87
Follow the money 75
football 33, 5
Football Clock Management 65, 7
football coaches 82
Football point spreads 87
football teams 82
football writer 87
Ford 72, 3
Ford, Christine Blasey 37
Ford, Gerald 72
forecast 86
foreclose 70
foreclosure 70
forest 63
Forgotten Man 10
fossil fuels 61
foul-line 44
foul shots 44
Foundation for Critical Thinkin 98
founders 72
Founding Fathers 53
fourth down 9
Fox News 15, 2, 9, 7, 39, 6, 3
Fox News’ 15
fracking 61
Franklin Roosevelt 10
fraud 56, 2
Frazier v. Cupp 92
FRE 63
FRE 404(a)(1) 13
Freakonomics 87
free and clear 94
free-and-clear 69, 3
FreedomFest 89
freedom of speech 92
free lunch 97
free mpg improvements 97
free publicity 77
free shipping 97
free will 36
freezing weather 96
French 32
frequency char 51
FRE Rule 403 36
Freudian slip 47
frugal 82
Frye 62
Frye standard 62
Frye v. United States U.S. District Court (293 F. 1013) decision 62
fundamentals 43, 7, 81
fund managers 83
future cash flows 53
future military actions 12
future payments 53
futures market 70
G
gains 82
gain some benefit 92
gains taxes 42
Galileo’s Revenge 60, 62
Gallileo 60
Gallileo’s Revenge 60
gamble 48
gamblers 47
gambling 48
Garbage in 53
garbage in garbage out 60
garbage in means garbage out 82
garbage out 53
Garn–St. Germain Depository Institutions Act of 1982 84
Gas 84
gas lines 84
gasoline tax 73
gastroenterology 62
Gather information 58
GDP 47
GE 42
gender 55
gender discrimination 54
general acceptance 62
Generally Accepted Accounting Principles 39
General Mills 70
George Orwell 12
Germans 74
get-out-the-vote effort 73
Gettysburg Address 64
GIGO 82
gilovich 44
global warming 21
Global warming 17
GM 76
goalie 56
go-for-2 65
go for a first down far more often 9
go for one 65
gold 81
Golden Gate Bridge 96
golden mean fallacy 27
Goldilocks 47
good looks 17
good luck 65, 3
good money after bad 21
Google 90, 1
Google Analytics 3
Gore 52
Gore, Al 15, 1
Gospel According to Harvard Business School 95
gouging 40
government 39
Government Accountability Institute 79
government agency 40
government spending 55
government statistician 55
graduate student 78
Graham 81
Graham, Benjamin 43, 1, 9
Grand Canyon 88
grandchildren 82
grand jury 12
grants 58
graphics 3
Graphs 93
gravitas 78
gravity 96
gray” area 29
gray fallacy 27
Great Depression 10, 81
greater fool theory 90, 1
greed 40
greedy 82
greedy” corporations 61
green 20
green movement 20
Greenspan, Alan 90
grenade 87
group affiliated 12
groupthink 59
growth 55
guess 56
guilt 14
guilt by association 15
guilty 62
H
Hackworth, David 7
Hagelin 52
halo effect 32
Halo effect 17
Ham, Mary Catherine 22
Hamming Code 49
hand 64
Hanes Underwear 60
Hannity, Sean 23, 9
happy break-through 59
happy medium 47
hard-core 40
HARKing 58
Harley-Davidson 40
Harris 52
Harris, James 53
Harvard Business School 48, 1, 3, 76, 5
Harvard MBA 81
Harvard University 74
harvest time 70
hater of America 73
Hauser’s Law 47
Hawaii 14
Hayek, Friedrich 67, 6
Head Start 35
health 82
health care 73
health care fraud 92
health information 12
health insurance 15
Hearsay 18
heart attacks 59
heavy-water reactor 61
hedge 71
hedgeable 70
hedging 68, 0
Hedging 70
hegemony 11
heights 44, 6
heirs 14
Helicobacter pylori 55
hematology 58
herd 43
herd instinct 44, 0, 82
heroes 58
hero status 34
hidden teaching 37
high crimes or misdemeanors 16, 2
higher price 97
highest bidder 40
high-probability 68
high school graduates 95
high-tech 33
Highway to Hell 96
hijacking 77
Hillary 15, 3, 6
Hill, Marc Lamont 36
Hitchcock, Alfred 25
Hitler 12, 5, 3
Hitler’ 16
hitting is contagious 44
Holding 80
hold is to buy 81
Holmes, Sherlock 49
Holocaust 40
Home Equity Conversion Mortgage 70, 83
homeless 51, 3
home mortgage 70
Homeowners 69
homeowners insurance 68
home prices 86
homestead 71
homestead exemption 71
honor code 29
Honor Code 56
honored dead 65
horseshoe 87
Horton, Willie 74
hospitals 73
hot hand 44
hot political issue 55
hot streak 44
House 72, 2
house fires 69
Households 55
house” take 47
housing 20, 4
Howard Hughes 36
how much 75
how much time 75
How Not to be Wrong 48
How Not to Be Wrong 11, 4
How Not To Be Wrong 44
How Not to Be Wrong: The Power of Mathematical Thinking 42
how to measur 56
How to Not Be Wrong 52
How to Protect Your life Savings From Hyperinflation & Depression 71
How to Protect Your Life Savings From Hyperinflation & Depression 83
how you did it 31
Hubble Telescope lens 97
Huber 63
Huber, Peter 60, 2
human 80
human feces 93
human performance events 44
humans 56
human tribes 80
Hume, Britt 76
hump 96
Huntley 76
hurricanes 87, 6
hype 77
hyped false alarms 77
hyperbole 20
hyperbole = dishonesty 20
Hyperbolic name calling 73
hyperinflation 83
hypnotize 36
Hypocrisy 27
hypocrite 40
hypothesis 58, 9, 3
I
IA 71
I beams 96
iBooks 31
ice 96
identity group 54
ideologue 73
idiot 73
If you like your doctor 79
If you like your plan 79
ignorance 14, 24, 8
Ignorance is not an opinion 23
ignore all risks 68
ill-defined 23
ill-defined words 19
Ill-defined words 18
illegality 40
Illegitimate election 73
illness 43
illogical 40, 82
illusion 74
IMF analyst 87
immigration 41, 5
immoral 40
immorality 40
immune to criticism 28
impeach 16
impeach a witness 26
impeachment 72, 73, 8
Impeachment 72
impeachment conviction 73
impeach the witness 28
impersonating a federal agent 92
implication 17
impolite 31
impress rather than express 3
inaccurate 40
Inc. 80, 90
Incentives 56
income 54, 0
income inequality 55
Income properties 84
income tax 43, 1
income-tax amendment 15
income-tax term 80
incompetent 19
inconsistent 27
inconsistent answer 36
inconsistent with a prior statement 28
incorporating 14
incorrect diagnosis 66
increase in its value 83
incremental enjoyment 51
incumbent 55
incumbents 55
incurable 54
In Defense of Troublemakers 59
independent special counsel 15
index 81, 8
index fund 42
index funds 81, 88
indirect 17
individual expert 62
individual investors 81
individuals 55
Indonesia 24
inequality 55
infection of the womb 52
inflation 55, 3, 4
inflation rate 83
informal fallacy 27
inheritance 82
inheritance tax 71
Inherited wealth 14
initial conditions 87
injury 63
In-kind annuities 83
innocent 62
innovations 87
innovative 18
innuendo 9, 4, 5, 6, 7
Innuendo 15, 6
innuendos 18
insecurity 30
Insider.com 30
insider trading 21
insinuate 9, 18, 0
insinuating 39
insinuation 7, 4, 5, 0, 1
Insinuation 17
Inspector 12 60
in step 96
instincts 80
insurable 49, 69, 0
insurable financial risks 69
insurable risk 69
insurance 56, 8, 9, 83
insurance policies 49
insurance premium 68
insure 71
Integral and differential equations 95
intellectual investigations 38
intellectuals 37
Intellectuals and Society 18, 9
Intellectual Ventures 61
intelligence sources 92
Intelligent Investor 81
intentions 35
interest 70
Interest compounds 82
interest only 70
interest rate 86
interest rates 83
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2014 Report 61
Internal Revenue Code Section 162(a) 14
international trade 40
interrogation 92
interval changes 93
intimidating 22
intrinsic value 81
intuitive (and Short) Explanation of Bayes Theorem 44
Invalid analogy 10
invest 82
investigations 12
investigative 79
investigative journalism 79
investigative journalist 79
investment 12, 9
investment policy 81
investment returns 81
invisible hand 61
Ioannidis, Dr. John 58
IPCC 61
IPCC 2014 Report 61
IPO 47
ipso facto 54
IQ 54
IRA fighters 76
Iran 51, 8
Iran-Contra 7
Iran nuclear weapons 29
Iraq 77, 8
IRC §162(a)(2) 14
Iron Curtain 38
irony 20
irrational 53, 7, 0, 2
irrational despair 43, 2
irrational exuberance 43, 2, 0
irrationality 43
Irregular data points 93
irrelevant 27, 2, 33, 7, 4, 5
Irrelevant 27, 1
IRS 34
Irving, Clifford 18, 6
ISIS 73, 8
Islam 39
Israeli 29
Issikoff, Michael 18
Italy 45
iterations 49
Ivory Tower 9
J
Jackson, Jesse 10, 14
jail 54, 7
jamming 22, 3, 6
Japanese-American 55
Japanese-Americans 55
jargon 33
Jarvi, Howard 33
jaywalking 68
Jenkins, Holman 37
Jessup, Colonel 86, 8
Jews 12
JFK 34
Joe Biden 15
John F. Kennedy 34
Johnson, Lyndon B. 32
joke 76
Jong-un, Kim 20
journal 63
journalism 75
journalist 66, 2, 8
Journalist 66, 5
Jr. 13, 37
judge 6, 2
judge decisions by what the decider knew at the time 64
judges 54
judicial notice 23
judiciary 62
junk mathematician 63
junk quality 81
junk science 60, 1, 2
Junk science 21, 0
junk scientist 63
junk scientists 60
jury 6, 2, 63
jury nullification 73
jury trial 63
just one prediction 88
just say no 86
K
Kahnema 49
Kahneman 49, 0
Kahneman, Daniel 25, 0
Kavanaugh 37
Kavanaugh, Brett 77
Kennedy, Bobby 37
Kennedy, John F. 75
Kennedy, Teddy 28
Kentucky bourbon 40
Kepner, Charles 65
Kepner-Tregoe 65
Kepner-Tregoe method 66
Kerry, John 7
key document 79
Keynes, John Maynard 47, 7, 9
Khaldun, Ibn 47
killed 83
killed crossing the street 68
Killing Fields 24
Kindle 31
Kiyosaki, Robert 14
Klansman 73
knots 97
know are unknowable 88
knowing what you do not know 84
Kopechne, Mary Jo 28
KS 71
Kurtz 76
Kurtz, Howard 76
Kuwait 78
Kyoto Protocol 61
L
laboratory 62
labor law 54
lack of skill 83
Laffer, Art 47
Laffer Curve 47
Landlording 31
landlords 54, 8
land-use regulation 55
language of science 86
Laos 24
Large Number 48
large number of times 63
large organizations 83
Large samples 27
Las Vegas 87
late deciders 89
later-born siblings 54
Latin 33, 5, 9, 4
Latinos 39
lavish or extravagant 14
law 75
law and order 74
law enforcement 39
law-enforcement 92
law of gravity 27
Law of Large numbers 50, 3
Law of Large Numbers 25, 5, 8, 9, 1, 63
Law of Small Numbers 25, 9, 0
laws 75
Lawyering 24
lawyers 33, 2, 9
lazy 78
leasing 68
left 22
Left 16
Leftists 12
legal checkers 3
legal defense expenses 30
legal research 79
LENGTH of your rebuttal 37
leverage 83, 4
leveraging 82
Levitt, Steven 56, 7
Lexus 50
Liability 69
liability risk magnets 69
liar 73
liars 79
libel 27, 8, 2
liberal 39
liberal democracies 38
liberals 22, 1, 62
Liberals 54, 1
Libertarian 22
licensed 95
lie 29, 56, 6, 9, 2
lied 86
Lie Factor 93
Lies 73
life 39
Life 12
Life estates 83
life insurance 56
life -insurance company 56
life insurance policies 50
life story 77
lighter 97
lightning 59
light-water reactor 61
likability 11
likely” voters 89
limitations 83
Lincoln 64
linear regression 82
line of credit 70
Linker, David 37
Lippman, Walter 9
liquid assets 69
liquidity 43
listed first on the ballot 89
literacy test 73
literally 76
LiteraryDevices.net 16
litigation 68
litigator 79
Little Book of Behavioral Investing 81, 9
live above the common level of life 40
living wage 20
load 96
loan policy 81
lock in an acceptable price or rate 70
locomotive 66
logarithm table 51
logic 75
logical 66, 7, 0
Logical Fallacies 3
logic fallacy 64
logic-fallacy checker 3
long-lived 97
long run 67
long-term average 81
long-term lease contract 53
long-term record 87
look both ways before crossing 68
Lorenz, Edward 60
losing a lawsuit 69
loss averse 82
Loss-aversion bias 82
losses 82
lotteries 47, 9
lottery 48, 4
lottery gambling 47
lottery ticket 21
louder 36
Loungani, Prakash 87
lousy credit borrower 86
lowest common denominator 75
low probability 69
Low probability 68
loyalty oath 15
lucky 83, 0
lump sum 83
lunatic 73
lying 47, 8, 2
lying on its side 96
lying to a federal agent 92
lying to a federal land bank 92
lying to HUD 92
M
MA 74
Machiavelli 11
machine 40, 5
macro economy 87
Madhouse Media 31
Mafia 30
magic black box 95
magician 74
Magnum Force 83
mail fraud 92
mainstream 39
maintenance 78
maintenance cost 97
major 95
make a mountain out of an opponent’s molehill 18
make-out session 14
Making molehills 72
Making mountains 72
Malaysia 24
males 54
malfunction 65, 66
MA lottery 48
malpractice 47
mammogram 46
managed fund 88
manage risk 70, 6
man bites dog stories 78
man-caused 43
Manchurian Candidate 73
manifesto 77
man-made 86
man-made mortgages 86
manual, style 2
Mao 73
map 93
marching soldiers 96
marginal utility 51
margin calls 70
margin of error 53, 9
margin of victory 53
market capitalization 90
market price 70
market prices 90
market share 90
market timing 67, 0
market value 81
Marks, Howard 71
mark to market 80
married couple 55
Marshall, Barry 55
Marshall-Warren best practice 62
Marxist 73
Marxists 61
Maryland 47
Marytrdom of Man 49
Massachusetts lottery 48
mass bank failures 81
mass claims 50
Massive filing of claims 70
mass-market advertisers 76
mass-market corporations 75
mass murder 76
mass transit 47
mass-transit 47
Mass transit 48
Mastectomies 44
masters degree 96
material omission 12, 9
Math 17
mathematical formula 60
mathematician 48
mathematicians 63
math geniuses 48
Matthews, Chris 36
maverick junk science “expert 62
maximum vehicle weight 96
Mayo Clinic 63
MBA 95
McCain, John 18
McCarthy Era 15
McCarthy-era loyalty oath 14
McCarthy, Joe 16
McGovern 22
McReynolds 52
Medal of Honor 7
meddling 40
media 92
Media Buzz 76
Media Madness 76
median 47
Media sensationalism 58
medical diagnosis 19
medical experts 37
Medicare 74
Medlock, President “Mike 19
Meet the Press 41
Meltzer 37
Melzer 38
membership fee 97
methods 12, 2
metrics 91
Mexican-Americans 55
MI 89
MI6 18
Michigan 48
microscope 54
Microsoft 61, 9
Middle Eastern wars 78
middle ground 27
Milan 45
miles per gallon 97
military 80
military integrity 29
military readiness 55
military secrets 92
military troops 96
Milken, Michael 13
millionaire 21
mind changers 89
minorities 39
Minority Leader 72
Minow, Newton 75
misdiagnose 66
misogynist 73
misremember 65, 3
misrepresentation 92
missing-corner technique 30
missing emails 76
mitigating the risk 68
MMR vaccine 66
mob 10, 1, 2
mob psychology 10, 2
mock 20
Mockery 21
modal 39
mode 26
model error 18, 0
moderate Democrat 39
moderate Muslim 39
molehill 16, 72, 8
momentum 44
Momentum investing 82
monetize 40
Money-illusion bias 83
Monmouth Poll 89
Montier, James 81, 3, 9, 0
Moorehead 52
Moore, Roy 14
moral 40
moral basis 27
Moral equivalence 30
moralistic 40
moral justification for capitalism 61
moral self-doubt 14
more 83
more abortions 61
More data causes overconfidence 84
Mormon 74
Morningstar 42, 8
mortgage 53, 9, 3, 6
mortgage applications 39
mortgage lender 69
mortgage payment 83
mortgage payments 94
most important to know 84
Mother Jones 18
Motivation 11
motives 8, 6
Motives 9
Motley Fool 90
motorcycles 40
motor vehicle readiness report 56
mountain 72, 8
move 71
movie star 17
moving the goal posts 59
mpg 97
Mr. Market 43
Ms. magazine 76
Mueller, Robert 77
multimillionaire 64
multiple reliable sources 77
multiplier 70
Muslim 73
mutual funds 42
Muzzled 22
Myhrvold, Nathan 61
mystique 17
N
Nader 52
name calling 6, 9
National Apartment Association convention 33
National Association of Scholars 59, 0
National Football Lottery 87
National Health Service 52
National Merit Scholarship 54
national polls 89
national security 12
national security equipment 12
Native Americans 39
natural 43, 6
natural gas 61
Natural is always better than non-natural 35
natural resource 40, 6
naval architects 95
navy 95
Navy Cross 7
Nazi 73
Nazi Brown Shirt tactics 3
NBA 50, 4
NBC 41
negative expected value 21, 8
negative first four W’s 66
negative studies 59
Negative test result 46
negligence 64
Nemeth, Charlan 59
Netanyahu 28
net effect 29, 3
Netherlands 90
net income 53, 8, 86
net present value 53
net worth 25, 0, 1, 0, 2
never-say-always 35
never say never 35
Newcomb, Simon 51
New Deal 10
Newer is always better than old 31
New Rational Manager 65
newsletters 75
Newspeak 12
Newsweek 20
New Thought Police 22
Newton’s First Law of Motion 44
New York City 78
New-York-City 78
New York Shipbuilding Corporation 95
New York Times 93
NFL 54
NFL games 87
NFL pension 71
nice guy 13
niceties 31
Nixon 15, 9
Nixon Administration 73
NJ 71, 5
NOAA 88
Nobel Peace Prize 17
Nobel Prize 17, 5, 5, 0
nod 37
no deductible 69
no free lunch 97
noise 59
nomadic tribes 80
nominal rate 83
nominal value 94
non-accusation accusation 15
non-denial denial 7, 5
no net positive result 35
non-existent or irrelevant law 13
non-existent ‘rights’ 20
non-judgmental 39
non-opinion statement 28
non-partisan 61
non-random 86
non-recourse 70
nonrecourse 70
Nonrecourse 70
nonrepresentative 89
non-socialist 62
nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug 55
Nook 31
normal distribution 44, 6
Normandy 74
North 7
North Korea 20
North, Oliver 7
no skill 88
not admissible 64
not believe in insurance 69
not debating 28
not happened yet 88
nothing burger 55
Nothing new 28
not material 92
NPR 22
NPV 53
N-rays 59
nuclear energy 61
nuclear power 61
nuclear weapons 61
null hypothesis 54
nullify elections 73
NV 71
N-word 23
NY 53
nylon-producing machinery 66
NY Times 20
O
Oaktree Capital 71
Oath 16
Obama 20, 4, 8, 9, 1, 3, 9
Obama Administration 73
Obama, Barack 17
obscure cases 79
obscure laws 79
obscurity 37
observe 58
obstinate 40
Occupy Movement 22
October surprises 37
Odysseus, Homer’s 82
offend 76
offending 76
office buildings 55
off-topi 31
off topic 7
OF USC 78
oil 84
oil glut 84
oil-producing states 84
OK 71
Oklahoma 84
Older are wiser than younger 32
older I get the better I was 83
older people 82
Olympic swimmers 54
oncology 58
one-action laws 70
one cause 65
one in twenty 59
one-in-twenty convention 58
on end 97
one-size fits all 39
one-world government 73
operating expenses 78
operative 40
opinion 8, 4, 3
opinions 92
opposition research report 18
oppressive government 37
oppressive regimes 38
optics 16
optimal 47
optimistic 53, 8
oral contraceptive 52
ordinary and necessary business” expense. 14
Ordnance engineering 95
O’Reilly, Bill 23
original 79
or steal 29
Orwellian 73
outlawyered 79
outlier 33
outmoded 18
out of context 13
out of control 40
Out-of-office 78
out-of-power accuser 73
out-of-power politician 72
overbuilding of apartment building 84
overconfidence 84
Overconfidence 83
overconfident 65, 8
overhead 69
overreacted 77
overreaction 77
oversimplification 39
overtime 54
over-valued credentials 12
Overvaluing 80
owner-occupied home 71, 4
owner-occupied home mortgage 70
P
PA 73, 9
Page, Carter 18
Palin 22
Palin, Sarah 15
panicking 81, 2
paranoia 34
pardon power 72
pardons 72
Paris Accord 61
Paris Accords 61
parody 15, 0
parole 74
partial structure 96
partisan 74
Partisans 73
party 96
Pas de Calais 74
passage of time 93
passive-loss limits 84
passport 19
past performance predicts future performance 88
patter 74
pattern 16
patterns 34
Patterson, Ransom 98
Paul Drake 79
pedantic 20
pedestrian 96
pedestrians 96
Peer approval 17
peer-approved journal 58
peer group 18
peer pressure 44
peer review 17
peer-reviewed journal 59, 63
peer-reviewed periodical 58, 2
Peggy Lee 77
Pelosi, Nancy 15
penalty kick 56
penetrating 89, 0
pension 71
Pensions 83
PE ratio 90
perfect be the enemy of the good 35
perfection 34
perfect storm 84, 5
periodical 79
periodicals 75, 79
perjury 7, 2
per number of plays 50
Perry Mason 79
perseverance 79
personal taste 16
person who” fallacy 26
pessimistic 53
Petitio principii 29
PEW Research Poll 73
p-hacking 59
pharmaceutical company 62
Ph.D.-holding economists 87
Phillips 52
philosophers 37
philosophical’ grounds 28
philosophies 28
philosophy 35
philosophy department 3
phone number 83
phony numbers 51
photographs 93
physical assaults 22
physical damage 69
physics 60
Physics 95
physiology 17
picture 93
picture is worth a thousand words 93
Pill kills 52
Pinnochios awards 79
Pinnochios of the Year award 79
Pinocchios 19
pitch 50
pity 32
placebos 26
Plain English 3, 3
plaintiff 54, 0, 9
planes 43, 7
plastic 97
playing time 50
play the game 56
Pluralizing the singular 29
point spreads 87
police 92, 3
polio vaccine 59
politeness 31
political agenda 61
Political correctness 21
politically incorrect 40
Political statistics 55
politician 73
politicians 37, 5, 0
Politicians 6, 0, 2, 4
Politico 13
politics 6
pollsters 89
Pollsters 53, 9
poll tax 73
pontoon bridge 95
poop 93
poor 32
popular vote 53
positive expected value 48
positive mammogram 46
Positive test results 46
Post hoc ergo propter hoc 25
poverty 32
POW 17
power 61, 7
powerful real estate lobby 85
power-keeping 6
power lines 59
power-seeking 6
Powers, Kirsten 22, 3
precipitation 88, 3
predator 40
predatory 40
predict 71
predictable 72
Predictably Irrational 80
predicting weather 60
prediction 87
predictions 88
pregnancy remaining in the womb 52
premature 58
prepare for the worst 71
preregister 59
prescription 97
preserve wealth 88
press bias 76
presumption of innocence 54
prey 40
price controls 55, 8
price-earnings ratio 66, 1, 0
prices that do not change over time 94
prig 40
Prince 11
principal 70
principal residence 71
principle of substitution 48
principles of insurance 49
prior under-oath testimony 19
prison 54
prisoner training 39
Pritchard, Steve] 30
privacy 11, 4
private investigator 79
private lender 69
privately owned 73
private person lender 70
privilege 12
pro-abortion 39
probabilities 65, 2
probability 54, 5, 68, 9, 6, 0
Probability and statistics 95
probable cause 15, 6, 8, 34, 7
probable-cause affidavit 24
process 95
professional services 75
professions 26, 35
professor 9
profit 40, 9, 8
profiteering 40
profits 41
progressive 39
progressive deterioration 69
progressive income taxes 14
project into the future 82
projection 34
prophetic 89, 0
prospectus 88
prostate 46
prostate cancer 45, 46, 9
protest too much 34
Protest-too-much quantity of sources 19
protocols 59
proud people 39
prove a negative 16
Prudential 49
PSA test 45
psychiatric defect 76
psychological momentum 43
Psychological projection 34
psychology 58
public figure 92
public interest group 39
publicity stunt 76
publicly-traded corporation 40
public-policy consideration 64
publish 86
publishing 88
Puffery 92
pulmonary thrombosis 52
pumping sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere 61
punch cards 52
purchase-money 70
purchasing power 83
Q
questions 15, 0
quota 54
quoting the forecasts 86
R
race 55
race hustlers 14
race relations 73
racial discrimination 54, 5
racism 54
racist 40, 4, 3
racist discrimination 54
radiation 45, 6
radical 38, 3
radical mastectomy 46
radical political agenda 62
radio 59, 5
Raid 10
railed 40
railroad 66
rail yard 66
rain 88
raise children 54
raised the specter 16
Randall, David 60
RAND Corporation 65
random 25, 4, 44, 1, 9, 9, 3, 6, 8
Random 43
random number generator 87
ranger 17
Ranger School 10
rape 14
rapid speech 23
rate at which to discount the future cash flows 53
rate of return 81
ratings 75, 9
rational economic men 80
Rational Manager 65, 66
raw 50
Reaction 76
reactionary 18
Reade, Winwood 49
reading “between the lines 37
Reagan 7, 2, 3
real estate gurus 56
real estate industry 84
Real Estate Investing Letter 81
real estate investment 33
real estate investments 81
real estate investment trusts 68
real estate investors 85
Real Estate Investor’s Monthly 78
real estate lobby 85
real estate purchasers 84
real interest rate 83
real interest rates 83
realize 80
real’ prices 93
real probabilities 46
real value 94
real” value 94
reasons for decision 65
recession 84
recessions 49, 7
reckless disregard 92
recluse 36
Recognition 76
red 20
Redefining words 12
redistribution of income 14, 9
red neck 54
reductio ad absurdum 10, 1, 4
re-elected 55
refinance 70
reform 39
refresh recollection 19
refund 75
refusal to compromise 27
refusal to debate 21
refuse to lie 56
refutation by association 22
registration of guns 24
Regression to the mean 82
regression toward the fundamentals 43
regression toward the mean 43, 8
regression toward the mob 43
regret 70, 0
regulation of business 55
regulations 60, 1
rehabilitation 39
Reid, Harry 18, 6
REITs 68
Rejecting facts or logic as opinion 14
relevant 66
reliable sources 56
religion 6, 2, 0
remissions of fines 73
renewable energy 61
renounce 14
renounced his U.S. citizenship 47
rent 83
rent control 78
repairs 83
repairs service 69
repetition 10
repetitive 36
report 40
reprieves 72
reproduce 59
reproduced 60
reproducibility 58, 9
Reproducibility 58
reproducible 58
Republican 15, 2, 5
Research in Motion 90
research studies 63
‘Reservoir’ protection 70
residential property 69
restaurant review 28
results 21, 65
Results 64
résumé 7,
retest 58
Retest 58
retirees 47
retirement 82
retrospectoscope 65
return on equity 83
returns on the equity 43
Revenge 34, 6
reverse-annuity mortgage 70
reverse engineered 90
Review of Finance 42
revival ministers 36
revolutions 87
reward 23
rewards 34
Rhetorical question 23
rhetorical tricks 10
rhetoric of concealment 37
Rhodes Scholarship 17
rhyme 10
rhyming 10
rich 32
Rich Dad Poor Dad 10, 4
rich people 69
Rich people are smarter 32
ridicule 21
right 20
right-to-work 22
riots 50, 4, 7
risk in everything 68
risk management 3
risk-management 68
Risk management 68
risk-management technique 71
risk managers 86
risk preference 51
risks 68
road bed 96
Robert, Henry Martyn 2
Robert’s Rules of Order 2
Roberts Rules of Order 8
Robinson, Leigh 31
Rock, Chris 22
roll of a die 63
roll-of-the-die 50
Romer, David 9
Romneycare 74
Romney, Mitt 13, 8, 6
Ronald Reagan 85
root cause analysis 65
Rosenstein, Rod 40
Rosenzweig, Paul 13
Roulac, Stephen 3
roulette 47
round off 52
routine documents 19
rude 30, 1
rules 41
rules of evidence 37, 2
rummage 40
run away in battle 83
Running with the herd 57
rural 71
Russia 15, 8, 4, 6, 0, 7, 8
Russians 13, 16, 6
Ryan, Paul 15
S
sad 16, 1
safety margin 96
Salem Witch trial 16
sales 90
salespeople 6
sales presentation 92
Salk, Dr. Jonas 60
Salk polio vaccine 60
salvage radiation 45
sample size was too small 63
Sanders, Bernie 14
San Francisco 93, 96
San Francisco Chronicle 96
sarcasm 20, 6
Saturday Night Live 15
Savant Capital 42
save 82
Saverin, Eduardo 47
save the deductible 69
scapegoat 34
Scapegoating 12
scarce 84
scared 74
scaring 73, 7
Schenck v. United States 92
Schlessinger, Dr. Laura 17
Schweizer, Peter 79
Science 17, 8
science error 18
scientific community 62, 63
scientific method 3, 4, 8
scientists 63
Scientists 66
scoffing 3
scoffing sound 15
scoop 58, 9
scoop bias 58
Scranton 73
scrimping 82
SD 71
SEAL 17
search warrant 16, 4
Second Amendment 24
secret 12, 9, 0
secretary 95
secrets 92
Section 2 of the United States Constitution 72
Section 6 92
securities fraud 21
Security Analysis 81
selection process 42
Self-amortizing 70
self-attribution bias 65
self-confidence 17
self-fulfilling prophesy 89
self-improvement 33
self-insurance 69
self-insuring 69
Self-made wealth 14
self-reliant 98
self-righteous 40, 6
sell at the to 67
selling low 82
sell papers 79
sells papers 59
sell too late 67
Senate 92
sensational 58
senses 35
sensitivity analysis 53
service 39
several-standard-deviation 86
sexist 73
sexually discriminated 55
sexual “misbehavior. 14
Shakespeare 24
shame 56
Shapiro, Ben 36
Sharpton, Al 14
Shaw, George Bernard 26, 5
sheep’s clothing 37
shield 39
shifting the risk 68
shipwreck 69
shoe leather 79
shooting streaks 44
Shouting down 22
showing off 36
shut-up” tactic 22
sickle cell anemia 54
sigh 15
signal 59
Sign of Four 49
Silencing 22
Silent Spring 87
silver 81
silver star 7
simplistic 18, 9
Simpson, OJ 71
simultaneous claims 49
Singapore 24, 7
single-elimination 44
single-family 94
single-payer 73
single person 55, 1
sirens 82
Size of the bet 50
skill 83
skin color 54
sky’s the limit 69
Slackbridge 16
slander 27, 5, 2
slandering 17
S&L Debacle 84
slight error 19
Slight misquote 30
slippery slope 24
Sloan-Kettering Memorial 63
Sloan-Kettering Memorial Cancer Hospital 45
Sloganeering 10
slush fund 41
small error 19
small sample 50
Small sample 50
Smartest Guys in the Room 21
smell test 15
Smith, Adam 61
smokestack 66
Snipes, Wesley 19
snobs 75
snow 96
sober 68
Soccer 56
socialism 22, 2
socialist 56, 3
Socialist 14
Socialist Workers Party 53
social media 41
Social Security 74, 3
Socrates 38, 8
soils 95
solar 61
solar-powered paddle boats 61
solvent 67
something of value 92
sonic boom 32
Soros’ book 65
Soros, George 65
sound mind 83
sources 12
Sour grapes 28
Southeast Asia 24
Soviets 32
Soviet Union 24
Sowell, Thomas 18, 9, 9, 54
So what? 27
S&P 81
S&P 500 42, 8, 9
spacecraft 97
speak truth to power 76
special interest 39
speculating 66
Speculation 66
speculative mania 81, 0
speed 97
speed bumps 36
Spencer, Herbert 80
spending 39
spilt milk 21
spin 28
Splitting the difference 27
Spock, Mr. 80
Sports Illustrated 87
Sports Illustrated cover jinx 43
spread sheet 50
spread-sheet program 53
spying 76
SST 31
Stalin 73
Stalin, Josef 73
Standard deviations 86
standing operating procedure 30
standing orders 82
Stanford 96
stare decisis 39
starting position 27
Star Trek 80
State Department 19
statement 23
statements of fact 28
state of the art 75
state polls 89
static 59
statistically detectable 52
statistically noticeable 52
statistically significant 52
statisticians 25, 5, 3
statistics 42, 4
status quo 57
Status quo bias 82
statute 40
statute of limitations 29
statutory rape 14
stealing 39
steel 96, 7
steel beam 96
steel coils 96
Steele 18
Steele, Christopher 18
Steele “dossier 77
Steele Dossier 18
Steel Manual 97
STEM 17
step ladder 97
Stereotyping 9
stiffness 96
stock brokers 88
stock forecasters 88
stock-market 66
stock market analysts 86
Stock market analysts 88
stock market crash 43
Stock market forecasters 88
stock market risk 68
stock pickers 81
stock picking 67
stockpiling 70
stockpiling money 70
stocks 82
stock value 43
Stolen Valor Act 92
Stonewalled 22
stool 30
storm 69
strange 16
Strauss 37
Straussian 37
Straussian, Leo] 37
Straw man 13
streaks 44
streaming services 75
strength of his convictions 40
stress 54
stressed 96
strikes 87
strokes 87
Structural analysis 95
Structural design 95
studies 40, 8
Studies 33, 2
study 58, 9
stupid 73
subjective 6, 7, 8, 7
subpoena 41
subpolls 89
subprime borrowers 86
Subprime crisis 86
subprime mortgag 86
Subprime Mortgage 86
subscribers 81
subscriptions 75
substitute for results 35
Succeeding 98
successes 83
successes of people we do not like 65
sudden 69
sued 69
sugar pill 26
suggestion 17
suggestions 15
Summers, Larry 43
sunk cost 64
Sunk cost 64
sunk cost fallacy 65
sunspots 59
super computers 60
Superforecasting: the Art and Science of Prediction 87
Superfreakonomics 61, 87
superman 17
supersonic transport 31
superstition 21, 0
Suppression of the opponent’s voters 73
Supreme Court 62, 2, 7, 2
surface teaching 37
Surgeon General 63
Surgery 45
survival bias 42
survival of the fittest 80
surviving 43
survivors 42
survivorship bias 42
Swier, Dr. Rich 31
symbolism 37
Syria 78
systematic 66
T
tackles 50
Tacoma Narrows bridge 96
taking a quote out of context 13
taking dictation 79
talk fast 36
Talking faster 36
talking points 79
tariff 40
Tarlov, Jessica 37
tax 74, 83
taxes 47
tax hikes 61
taxi/ridesharing fare 47
taxi/ride sharing fares 47
taxis/ride share 48
Tax Reform Act of 1986 84
tax returns 36
Tea Party 22
Technology 17
temperature 88
Templeton, Sir John 81
ten-day forecasts 88
tenure 27, 8, 9
term of art 52
terror 77
terrorism 8
Terrorism 76
terrorism insurance 49
Tesla 66
test probabilities 46
Test results 46
Tetlock, Philip 87
Texas 84
Thailand 24
Theatrical fake laughter or sighs 15
The Birds 25
there is no “free lunch 97
Thermodynamics 95
The Week 37
think critically 98
Thinking in Bets 64
Think like a Freak 56
Think Like a Freak 56
think tank 65
think tanks 79
thin-skinne 30
thin-skinned 37
Thomas, Clarence 77
Thomas Gilovich 44
those who 13
three Rs 76
throw of a die 49
throw the die 49
throw-up-your-hands 68
ticket punched 78
tidal waves 87
Tide 76
tie 53
Tie 56
ties 15
timber manual 97
timber trestle bridge 95
time 82
Time 34
time markets 90
time series 43, 3
times series 93
Times v. Sullivan 92
time value of money 53
timing 16, 1
timing markets 91
tiny 52
Tiny Tim 32
Todd, Chuck 41
Toddlers 23
tone 31
tone king 31
too small of a sample size 25
top 96
top-stock-pickers list 88
tort case 64
tort lawyer 60
tort liability 56
torture 84
touchdown 65
tow a trailer 97
Tower, Senator John 6
towing 97
toxic 16
trade association seminar 33
trade deficit 41
trademark 12
trade-off 29, 5, 7
trade-offs 97
tradeoffs 97
trade secrets 12
traditional insurance policies 69
traffic fatalities 77
tragedy of the commons 61
traitor 73
transaction costs 42, 3, 80, 1
transfer risk 71
trauma 62
treason 16, 8, 2
trees 61, 3
Tregoe, Benjamin 65
trial court 73
trial lawyers 20
triangles 97
trickle-down economics 41
troubling 16, 1
truck 96
trucks 56, 96, 7
True negative 46
true positive 45
Trump 12, 3, 5, 16, 8, 9, 2, 9, 4, 9, 0, 3, 4, 76, 7, 9
trusts 83
trustworthy 70
Truth-in-Lending law 8
Truth-In-Lending Law 8
truth-seeking 6, 9
Truth seeking 33
truth to power 98
Tufte 93
Tufte, Edward 93
tuition 43
tulip bulb mania 90
Tupolev Tu-144 32
Tu quoque 27
Turkey 78
turn back the clock 18
Turning one source into more than one 77
turnout 73, 9
TV 75, 9
Tversk, Amos 25
tversky 44
Tversky 49, 0
Twice a tiny number 52
two points 65
TX 71, 1
types of wood 97
typical 26
typo 19
Tzu, Lao 86
U
Uber 48
U.K. 87
Ukraine 74
ulcers 54, 2
unable to discharge the powers and duties 72
uncompetitive 48
unconstitutional 19
uncorrelated asset classes 81
under-construction structure collapsing 96
underpriced 66
Unelected President 19
unemployment 55
unemployment insurance 49
unexamined long practice 27
unexpected 69, 9
unfair 41
Unfavorable-to-the-borrower state laws 71
unhappy breakthrough 59
unhinged 72, 3
uninsurable loss 70
Union 64
union demonstration 22
University in Northern Ireland 76
University of Texas 10
unlikely” voters 89
unlimited (dollar) homestead bankruptcy exemption 71
unlimited dollar homestead exemptions 71
unpredictable 53
unprofessional 19
unreliable source 77
Unsafe at Any Speed 87
unsanitary condition 80
unusual 69
urban 71
Urban Dictionary 23
urban legend 21
urine 45
urologist 45
USC 78
useless information 84
use something until you die 83
UsingEnglish.com 23
U.S. National Council for Excellence in Critical Thinking 98
utilities 78
utility 51
V
VA 70, 3
vacation 14
vague 39, 0, 2, 7, 2
vagueness 31
Vagueness 11
VA healthcare 55
value 65
Value at Risk (VAR) 86
value investing 81
value investing strategy 43
Value investor 89
values of income properties 84
vandalism 22
vandalizing 34
VAR 86
vast wasteland 75
vehicle 96
vehicles 69
vehicle traffic 96
venous thrombosis 52
vested interest 9
veterans 12
vibrations 96
Vice-President 72
Vidal, Gore 13
Vietnam 56, 5, 3
Vietnam War 24
Virginia Slims 76
volcanic eruptions 87
voter “nullification 73
W
wages 41
wait too long 67
Wald, Abraham 43
Wallace, Chris 36
Wall Street Journal 13, 7
war 21, 29, 4
war hero 7
war on poverty 32
warrant 18
Warrants 16
Warren, Robin 55
wars 50, 7
War Stories 7
Washington Post 19, 9
Washington State 96
water 70
Watergate 79
Watergate scandal 15
water over the dam 21
Waters 72, 3
Waters, Maxine 72
water under the bridge 21
Watson 49
way 16
weakest link 60, 9
wealth 32
Wealth of Nations 61
wealthy 47
weapon 39
weaponize 41
weather 60
Weather Bureau 88
Weather forecasters 88
weather graph 93
weathermen 88
weighted average value 65
Westlaw 75
West Point 2, 9, 9, 0, 5, 6, 5, 5, 6, 7
Wharton School 87
What 66
what is unknowable 84
what’s done is done 21
What Terrorists Want 76
what to measure 56
what you knew at the tim 21
wheat 70
Wheaties 70
When 66
Where 66
whistleblower 34
Whistleblower Informant Reward program 34
whistleblowers 34
white 54
White House 55, 3
white nationalist 41
white nylon filament 66
whites 54
white supremacist 39
Who 66
who benefits 34
Who cares? 28
who pays 75
Why 66
Why Most Published Research Findings Are False 58
Whyte, Jamie 22
WHY you might be wrong 7
WI 89
wild animals 80
wild card 72
Williams, Juan 15, 2
wills 63
wind 96
wind-caused vibration 96
wine-taster approval 18
wink 37
winner forecasts 87
winners 88
wire fraud 92
wiretap 18
Wisconsin 40
wises up 67
wise up 66
with which therefore because of which 25
witness 79
witness protection program 34, 2
womanizer 6
womb 52
women’s lib movement 76
won 52
wood 97
wood beams 95
Wood, Peter 60
Woodward, Bob 79
Word 41
world economy 87
world government 61
World War I 80, 95
World War II 43
worn out 97
worst case 96
worst-case claim 69
wounding 80
Write-ins 52
writing to impress rather than to express 36
written buy-and-sell criteria 82
written contracts 63
written criteria 81
written policy 82
written set of criteria 81
wrong doing 12
X
X) axis 93
Xerox 66
XIIth Amendment 72
XVI Amendment 19
Y
Yahoo News 18
Yale Law School 72
Y) axis 93
Yeah 20
You get what you pay for 75
young 82
Younger 82
Youth Baseball Coaching 31
youth football 50
youth of Athens 38
YouTube 46
Z
Z, Dr. 87
zero value 93
Zimmerman, Paul 87
zone 44