Even when Obama’s right no one believes him.
Obama’s current policy on Syria is correct for the right reasons: stay out—it’s a tar baby—it is not strategic—IS is not a threat to the U.S unless they become a rich state—Russia will bankrupt itself spending a lot of money trying to prop up Assad.
His prior policy—the red line and Assad must go were disasters because you don’t say stuff like that unless you mean to enforce it. But Obama has told so many lies and been so feckless and evasive in so many instances that he has turned himself, and the U.S., into the boy who cried wolf.
Another analogy is he is a poker player who bluffs too much. If you never bluff, you can only win when you have good cards. Which actually might work for the U.S. in geopolitics because we usually have the best cards in that realm.
Never bluffing works if you always have the best cards.
Sometimes bluffing enables you to win when you sometimes have bad cards.
But Obama’s approach, to always bluff, to speak loudly and carry a big stick that you never use, is disastrous. It means you can’t win even when you have the best cards. That’s a rather profound “accomplishment” if screwing things up super bad can be considered an accomplishment.
For all his dishonesty and being a jerk behavior, I do not believe The Donald would make mistakes like this. As a 40-year businessman in various very tough businesses, he may have tried this sort of behavior in his youth, but learned quickly not to do it. Obama, however, never left his youth. He is a permanent grad student—AND HE DOES NOT LEARN FROM HIS MISTAKES. He seems to have Leftist ideology inculcated from birth where the rest of us have brains. He is congenially anti-war. All you have to do to defeat an anti-war guy—even one with the most powerful military on earth—is to threaten him with war. Before Obama, Russia had to threaten us with World War III to get us to run up the white flag in Korea, Vietnam. With Obama, Russia only needs to threaten military actions.
I don’t think The Donald would lose with good cards, which is hard to do. Only Obama would screw things up so much that he would cause the U.S. to lose in situations where we have all the cards and the opponent has zilch.
Russia has the economy of Italy, a military that lost in Afghanistan and Chechnya, a shrinking population that is something like one tenth of America and its military allies. Their defense spending is a fraction of that of America and its allies. The impressive display of Russian military power in Syria is belied by the fact that they may have emptied the homeland of all their good stuff to make the world think they have lots of troops and military weapons.
Here is one comparison: https://socioecohistory.wordpress.com/…/russia-warns-nato-…/